Blog
These blog entries are intended to provide informed discussion of contemporary urban policy issues and to respond to requests for public input into proposed urban policies such as infrastructure financing, land use planning, affordable housing and economic growth.
Guelph Has an Insufficient Supply of Short-Term Residential Land: Time for Municipalities to Correctly Measure Their Short-Term Land Adequacy
October 17, 2024 - This blog, prepared by researcher Frank Clayton, examines a recent analysis of the current supply of short-term land for housing and its adequacy as prepared by the City of Guelph's planning staff.
The City report calculates that the City of Guelph has a 6.2-year supply of short-term residential land (for all types of housing combined), double CUR’s calculation of 3.1 years. For ground-related housing (singles, semis, and townhouses), we estimate the supply is even less—2.5 years. Thus, the City’s short-term land supply is significantly below the Province’s policy of a minimum supply of four years (based on maintaining a three-year supply at all times with annual monitoring).
We calculate that Guelph has a shortfall of short-term residential land equivalent to 708 units of ground-related housing (291 singles and semis and 417 townhouses) and a shortfall of short-term sites for apartments of 454 units.
Remember that this shortfall is based on the minimum years of supply required by the PPS. Municipalities should target higher years of supply to accommodate household growth, provide market competition, and compensate for past years of underproduction.
We recommend that the province adopt the template described in the blog so municipalities can consistently calculate the adequacy of their short-term land supply by unit type.
Previous Posts
October 1, 2024
Walkable Streetscapes Can Make Local Businesses More Attractive
September 26, 2024
An Update on Why Housing is Much More Affordable in Metropolitan Ottawa Than Metropolitan Toronto
September 23, 2024
September 3, 2024
August 16, 2024
June 18, 2024
Residents Fleeing the City of Toronto, Peel and York Regions to Find More Affordable Homes
June 10, 2024
Toronto Tops in 2023 Population Growth in Canada and the United States
June 7, 2024
June 4, 2024
GGH Population Growth: Population Surges in the City of Toronto, Peel and Waterloo Regions in 2023
May 15, 2024
May 7, 2024
Why do the “Experts” Treat Housing Types as Irrelevant?
March 26, 2024
Toronto CMA Renters Increased Spending on Public and Private Transportation 2010-2019
January 24, 2024
December 18, 2023
Existing Housing Stock Losses Outpace New Missing Middle Starts in the City of Toronto
October 17, 2023
What Land Removal Criteria Should be Applied to Toronto’s Greenbelt?
August 22, 2023
August 8, 2023
May 23, 2023
March 27, 2023
The Gainers Are Many When Toronto and Peel Bleed Population
January 19, 2023
GGH’s Greater Population Growth in 2022 Compared to 2019 Centred in the City of Toronto and Waterloo Region
November 10, 2022
Missing in Action: New Low-Rise Apartments in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
September 15, 2022
Narrowing the Housing Price Gap Between the Suburbs and Downtown Toronto: Demand or Supply Driven in the Future?
September 12, 2022
School of Cities Critics Misconstrue Clayton/Amborski on Greenfield Development/Sprawl
July 6, 2022
Is All Greenfield Development in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area Sprawl? A Resounding No
May 24, 2022
Greater Golden Horseshoe Housing Supply: Several Oddities When Comparing CMHC and Census of Canada Data
April 18, 2022
Metro Toronto Population Growth Crashes to 21st Place in U.S./Canada Ranking, Down from Third Place in 2020
March 3, 2022
The Greater Golden Horseshoe Growing Slower Than Forecast Largely Due to City of Toronto and Peel Region
February 2, 2022
Toronto CMA’s Continued Dominance of the GGH Economy Dependent Upon a Supply of Affordable Ground-Related Housing
January 14, 2022
Affordability Issues, Not the Pandemic, Drive Population from the City of Toronto and Peel Region
January 13, 2022
Brampton: The Land of Secondary Suites
July 12, 2021
Five Principles That Can Improve Housing Affordability in the GTA
July 7, 2021
The GTA Needs More Road Capacity: If Not Highway 413, Then Where?
June 4, 2021
Some Observations on the Recent Pattern of Residential Building Permits in the GGH
May 27, 2021
Toronto Third Fastest Growing Among U.S. and Canadian Metropolitan Areas in 2020, Down from First Place in 2019
March 5, 2021
GTA Residential and Industrial Markets Booming While Office Market Suffers: 905 Area Outshining City of Toronto
February 24, 2021
Bleeding of Resident Population from City of Toronto and Peel Region Accelerated Again in 2020
January 18, 2021
Region of Peel and City of Toronto Remain Top Destination for Millennials in 2020, Even as Many Flee in Search of More Affordable Housing
November 10, 2020
What Halton Region Is Missing by Its Blanket Opposition to CN’s Proposed Intermodal Facility
August 14, 2020
Shift in GTA’s Real Estate Demand to the 905 Area from Toronto Started Before COVID-19 GTA
June 25, 2020
Federal Tax Expenditures Favour Homeowners
March 11, 2020
Toronto CMA Losing Existing Population of All Ages to More Affordable Regions in Ontario
March 6, 2020
CUR's Top 4 Facts on Females in Real Estate
February 20, 2020
Where Are All the Canadian Millennials Moving To?
December 16, 2019
Toronto Homeowners Won't Be Overburdened by a Proposed Property Tax Increase to Fund Infrastructure
October 30, 2019
Millennials in the City of Toronto and CMA Are Heading to the Rest of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, but Are Being Replaced by Immigration
October 18, 2019
My Two Days with the Bertauds
October 7, 2019
Wondering Why the GTA Economy Has Been Growing So Fast and What the Future Holds? If So, Joe Berridge Is a "Must Read"
September 19, 2019
Takeaways from CUR’s Seminar on Leveraging Public Land and Public-Private Partnerships to Provide Social Housing
September 9, 2019
Time to Revisit the Population Forecast Underlying the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe
September 4, 2019
Single-Detached Houses Are Here to Stay in the GTA, Contrary to Media Reports and Planners' Dreams
July 29, 2019
Debating the Mortgage Stress Test: To Loosen or Not To Loosen?
June 14, 2019
Debating Bill 108 - How Economics 101 Can Help Planners Understand the Impact of Bill 108 on Housing Affordability
March 28, 2019
Another look at the Room the City of Toronto has to Raise Residential Property Taxes: Focus on Owner-Occupied Single-Detached Houses
February 22, 2019
Highlights from the CUR Seminar with Pamela Blais: “Hyper-Concentration of GTA Job Growth in Downtown Toronto: What Does It Mean for the 905 Regions?”
December 13, 2018
Car-Owning Households up by 355,000 in the GTHA, 88,000 in the City of Toronto, and 26,000 in the Toronto Core since 2006
December 7, 2018
Rent Control Has Been Eased, Will GTA Rent Growth Follow?
November 22, 2018
Creative Ways to Build Affordable Housing in Expensive Markets
September 6, 2018
Cleanup and Smart-In-Up: A Look at Ontario’s Efforts to Connect Brownfields Remediation, Infill Development and Regional Growth Planning
June 22, 2018
Tough Going: Few Winners, Many Losers in the GGH Job Creation Game
April 26, 2018
Love it or Hate It: The King Street Pilot Still Falls Short on Transit Needs Along the Corridor
March 2, 2018
Province's Proposed Methodolgy Will Aggravate House Price Affordability in the GGH
February 23, 2018
CMHC Report Highlights the Importance of Supply to Making Housing Affordable Again
February 9, 2018
City of Toronto's Economic Success Poses a Conundrum for Province's "Growth Plan"
December 19, 2017
What is happening in markets for residential land in the Greater Golden Horseshoe?
November 23, 2017
Key Takeaways from the 2016 Canadian Census Housing Data Release
By: Diana Petramala
October 23, 2017
Ontario government not yet maximizing the economic benefits from its foreign buyers' tax to increase housing affordability
By: Diana Petramala
October 4, 2017
What can the GTA do to attract Amazon?
By: Diana Petramala
September 20, 2017
What is Meant by "Missing Middle Housing" and How a Greater Vancouver-Based Study Proposes to Rectify It
By: Diana Petramala
August 31, 2017
How Accurate was Statistics Canada in Estimating Annual Population Growth Within the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) 2011-2016?
By: Frank Clayton
July 17, 2017
Let's Give Homebuyers the Choice of Buying New Single-Detached Houses and Still Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
By: Frank Clayton
July 12, 2017
Hey Toronto Media - Time to get with it: The "City of Toronto" is not the "Greater Toronto Area"
By: Frank Clayton
March 3, 2017
Population Growth in the 905 Portion of the Toronto Economic Region Continues to Outshine the City of Toronto in 2011-2016
By: Frank Clayton
February 6, 2017
GTA Combined New and Resale Home Sales in 2016: Apartments Surge, New Single-Detached House Sales Shrink
By: Frank Clayton
December 13, 2016
Time for Toronto Councillors to Stop Being Skittish About Raising Property Taxes
By: Frank Clayton
November 28, 2016
How Does Population Density in the GTHA Compare with Other Larger Urban Regions?
By: Cameron Macdonald
October, 2016
Economics and Land Use Planning: Insights from Britain - Overview
By: Professor Paul Cheshire
Blog #3: The alchemy by which land use regulation turns housing in Greater London into gold
September 23, 2016
Study Ranks 23 GGH Municipalities According to the Restrictiveness of Their Residential Land-Use Regulation
By: Cameron Macdonald
August 19, 2016
Surge in Ground-Related Lot Values Reflects a Shortage of Supply in the GTA
By: Frank Clayton
August 8, 2016
A Statistical Mystery: Diminishing Expansion of the GTA’s Built-Up Area at a Time of Surging Construction of Single-Detached Houses
By: Frank Clayton
July 15, 2016
How a Shrinking Supply of Serviced Sites is Stoking House Price Increases in the Greater Toronto Area
By: Frank Clayton
May 11, 2016
Did You Know: Travel Times for City of Toronto Commuters on Average are 60% Longer by Subway than by Car?
By: Frank Clayton
April 12, 2016
Toronto's Population Ranks High Up When Compared to Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Migration Patterns Key
By: Frank Clayton
February 4, 2016
The Fallacy that the City of Toronto Needs New Taxation Powers
By: Frank Clayton