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Demographics Foretell a Shift to New Single-Family Housing

December 10, 2024 - Researcher Frank Clayton summarizes a recent presentation of Peter Norman, Vice President and Chief Economist of Altus Group, who re-emphasizes the importance of demographics for housing demand by unit type, tenure and location, particularly the shifting population age structure and immigration levels. CUR's research is consistent with Norman's findings.

He concludes:

• Demographics favour a trend toward single-family housing (ground-related housing) in Canada, away from rental apartments over the coming decade;
• Demographics signal a robust market for single-family housing in the GTA for 2021-2041.

Even with the provincial government's initiatives to accelerate the production of more housing, including single-family homes, the more realistic prospect is that GTA municipalities will not be able to produce anywhere near the volume of single-family homes required to achieve the Norman forecasts and provide affordability relief.

Urbanists such as David Crombie and Anne Golden want to stop the development of new expensive single-family homes on greenfield lands, substituting development on farmland with "multi-bedroom, multi-unit and multi-storied buildings" constructed in already built-up urban areas. The blog looks at the challenges a freeze on all greenfield lands would face.

The bottom line is that both intensification and greenfield development are essential to meet future housing requirements and significantly improve affordability. With current high land costs, the housing built on greenfield lands is expected to incorporate next-in-line and higher-density substitutes to single-family homes like duplexes, stacked townhouses, low-rise garden apartment buildings, as well as single-detached houses on small lots and townhouses.

Without GTA greenfield development, the results may be worse for the environment as longer commutes, more greenhouse gases emitted by cars, and a gradual dispersal of jobs outside the GTA due to households moving outside the area to find more affordable single-family homes.

Read the blog