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Movement of People Within Ontario Stabilizing at Pre-Pandemic Levels Including Net Outflows from Toronto and Peel

By: Frank Clayton, Senior Research Fellow, with research assistance from John Clinkard, Research Fellow

April 2, 2025

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Executive Summary

This blog examines Statistics Canada’s latest estimates of net intraprovincial migration flows between Ontario census divisions (municipalities) in 2024 and the five preceding years. Net intraprovincial migration refers to the net flow (inflow less outflow) of Ontario residents between municipalities within the province. A quest for more affordable housing plays a significant role in the movement of residents between municipalities before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Key findings:

  • The number of Ontarians moving between municipalities (CDs) declined after the pandemic and remained stable in the 12 months ending July 1, 2024 – however, the latest estimate is still above pre-pandemic levels;
  • Three municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) accounted for 100% of the net outflow of residents within the province in the 12 months ending July 1, 2024 – the city of Toronto (-37,143), Peel region (-34,204), and York region (-4,561) for a total net outflow of 75,908 persons;[1]
  • In contrast, the net inflow of residents within the province was much more dispersed – the three top recipients were Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) municipalities of Durham region (+10,272), Simcoe county (+9,996), and Niagara region (+6,276). They accounted for just 35% of the province’s intraprovincial migration in 2024.

The dispersal of residents in the GTA - particularly those residing in Toronto, York, Peel, and Halton - is anticipated to continue as they search for housing that suits their needs and budget elsewhere in the GGH and other parts of the province.

Background

Statistics Canada (StatCan) recently released population estimates as of July 1, 2024, for census divisions (CDs) across Canada. The agency prepares these estimates annually.[1]

StatCan also prepares estimates of the components of population change:

  • Natural increase: births less deaths;
  • Net international migration: immigration less emigration;
  • Net interprovincial migration: persons moving between provinces;
  • Net intraprovincial migration: persons moving between municipalities within the same province.

This blog focuses on population change in the 12 months ending July 1 of the years considered (the 12 months ending July 1, 2024, are referred to as 2024).

We also label CDs as municipalities (the terms are used interchangeably here). In Ontario, most CDs are large single-tier municipalities (like the cities of Toronto, Ottawa, or Hamilton), regional municipalities (like the regions of York, Durham, or Waterloo) or counties (like Simcoe or Wellington counties). The county population estimates include separated municipalities within their borders (e.g., Wellington county includes the city of Guelph).

Much attention has been focused on the recent surge in immigration into Canada and where new immigrants settle. Immigration is now the primary source of population increase in many municipalities. Less attention is paid to the migration patterns of Ontario residents and the factors behind them, especially for residents moving between municipalities within larger urban regions.

This blog examines net intraprovincial migration flows between Ontario municipalities (census divisions) in 2024 and the five preceding years. Net intraprovincial migration refers to the net flow (i.e., the difference between inflow and outflow) of Ontario residents between municipalities.

The appendix consists of a table that provides net intraprovincial migration data for each CD in Ontario by year for 2019 to 2024 and compares 2024 with the annual average of the preceding five years (2019-2023).

Ontarians moving between municipalities stabilized at above pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and 2024

Figure 1 shows the total number of Ontarians moving between municipalities from 2019 to 2024.

Bar Chart of the Average Annual Residential Property Tax Paid in Large GTHA Municipalities, 2016 and 2021

Highlights:

  • The number of intraprovincial migrants across the province surged in the two pandemic years (July 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022), peaking at 107,963 persons;
  • Intraprovincial migration, which had fallen sharply in 2023 to 80,586 persons, stayed close to this same level in 2024 (76,163 persons), moderately above pre-pandemic numbers.

The City of Toronto and Peel Region Continue to Record Population Declines Again in 2024

Figure 2 focuses on the municipalities experiencing a negative net intraprovincial migration in 2024. Net intraprovincial migration in 2024 is compared with the average annual migration during the preceding five years (2019-2023).

Bar Chart of the average effective tax rate in Large GTHA Municipalities, 2016 and 2021. Source: TMU CUR

Highlights:

  • Only three out of 49 CDs (municipalities) recorded net outflows of at least 500 residents to other places in Ontario in 2024[1];
  • The three population losers are all located in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), with the city of Toronto (-37,143) and Peel region (-34,204) being the biggest losers;
  • York region recorded a significantly smaller net outflow of residents (-4,561);
  • Trending: Toronto’s net population loss resulting from a net outflow was modestly lower than the average of the five previous years, whereas Peel and York regions were marginally above the previous five-year average.

Simcoe county, Durham and Niagara regions again experienced the largest net inflow of intraprovincial migrants in 2024

Figure 3 shows the top ten municipalities (CDs) that exhibited a net gain of intraprovincial migrants in 2024, benchmarked against the average annual net inflow during the preceding five years. 

Highlights:

  • Three municipalities – Simcoe county, Durham and Niagara regions – were once again the largest recipients of net intraprovincial migrants in 2024, with Durham region taking the top spot with 10,272 net intraprovincial migrants, followed by Simcoe county (+9,996) and Niagara region (+6,287). All three municipalities contain sizable greenfield land inventories for building ground-related homes ;
  • While the losing municipalities were just three, the net intraprovincial gainers were spread throughout the province. The three top municipalities accounted for just 35% of all net intraprovincial migrants in the province;
  • Seven of the gaining municipalities are part of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH);
  • Most of the top ten recipient municipalities had higher net in-migration in 2024 than the average annual of the five prior years. The exceptions included Halton region and Simcoe county.

Since there are no detailed estimates of gross migration flows between individual municipalities, we can only surmise what is happening. It appears that the residents leaving the city of Toronto and Peel and York regions have mostly moved to other parts of the GTA and outer municipalities in the GGH in search of more affordable ground-related homes - but some have moved even farther afield. In turn, residents of many GGH municipalities have moved from the region to other parts of the province for their own housing affordability reasons.

The lack of affordable homes is a significant factor in the net outflow of intraprovincial migrants from the GTA

Surveys of GTA homebuyers or intending homebuyers consistently show a robust propensity toward single-detached homes or a close substitute (semi-detached home, townhouse, or even a stacked townhouse). Homebuyers have an innate desire to be at or close to ground level with an exterior entrance, garage and a plot of green space. Based upon surveys conducted by Ipsos for the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, between 70% and 80% of intending buyers plan on buying a ground-related home.[1] This preference is supported by demographic analysis.[2]

With the current price of ground-related housing in more central parts of the GTA being unaffordable, households are moving away from the city of Toronto and Peel and York regions to other parts of the Greater Golden Horseshoe and beyond to find ground-related homes they can afford. This net outflow is anticipated to continue over the foreseeable future.

End Notes

[1] The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) consists of the city of Toronto and the regions of Durham, York, Peel and Halton.

[2] The source of the data utilized in this blog is listed at the end of the text.

[3] Two CDs had small net losses: Essex county and Kenora.

[4] The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) consists of the city of Toronto and the regions of Durham, York, Peel and Halton.

[5] Frank Clayton. “What Kinds of Housing Are Homebuyers or Intending Homebuyers in the GTHA Choosing?” CUR. June 28, 2022.

[6] Frank Clayton. “Demographics Foretell a Shift to New Single-Family Housing.” CUR blog. December 10, 2024, and Frank Clayton, “Why do the ‘Experts’ Treat Housing Types as Irrelevant?” CUR Blog. May 7, 2024.

References

Frank Clayton (2022). “What Kinds of Housing Are Homebuyers or Intending Homebuyers in the GTHA Choosing?” CUR. June 28, 2022. [Online]. Available:  (PDF file) https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/centre-urban-research-land-development/CUR_Preference_Homebuyers_Intending_Hombuyers_GTHA_June_2022.pdf.

Frank Clayton (2024). “Why do the ‘Experts’ Treat Housing Types as Irrelevant?” CUR. May 7, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.torontomu.ca/centre-urban-research-land-development/blog/blogentry731111111/.

Frank Clayton (2024). “Demographics Foretell a Shift to New Single-Family Housing.” CUR. December 10, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.torontomu.ca/centre-urban-research-land-development/blog/blogentry73111111111111111111111/.

Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0153-01 Components of population change by census division, 2021 boundaries (external link) .

Appendix