Climate action: Transforming research into climate solutions
A guide and a warning: Mapping and predicting climate change impacts
Intersection
A guide and a warning: Mapping and predicting climate change impacts
Photo credit: Dave Atkinson
Northern Canada and the Arctic are warming faster than other parts of the planet, causing dramatic changes like melting ice, permafrost thaw and shifts in ecosystems. How these changes affect land and water-based ecosystems, and ultimately feedback to affect climate, is not well understood. Learnings from monitoring this region are vital for shaping global climate policies.
For more than 20 years, geography and environmental studies professor Dave Atkinson and his team have led research on Inuit lands in Northern Canada with permission. Using innovative data monitoring tools, they have successfully modelled physical and biological variables in a permafrost environment. Their findings help scientists understand and policymakers respond to environmental challenges posed by climate change.
Remote sensing key to tracking global warming
The Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory was initially established in 2003 on Melville Island, Nunavut, as part of professor Atkinson's PhD research. For the past two decades, he and his research team have used this uninhabited integrated research site to gather and analyze data showing changes in Arctic land and water-based ecosystem processes impacted by a warming climate and permafrost degradation. These changes have direct implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems in local environments.
Novel remote sensing applications, such as high-resolution satellite and drone imagery, have been critical for the team to collect data in such a remote area. Their analyses of this imagery and ground-based data collected on foot have allowed the team to successfully infer the impacts of climate change on interconnected ecosystems, such as water availability and flow, carbon exchange and soil conditions.
“When we start to see changes such as vegetation shifts through satellite or drone imagery, we know there's something else going on there, and we can do a further and deeper investigation into what that is,” said professor Atkinson.
Data collected over the past 20+ years show that, as temperatures rise and precipitation levels change, the active layer of permafrost – the topmost layer – is thawing deeper into the permafrost, releasing stored moisture and carbon. This change causes some environments to dry out faster. At the same time, soil instability in ice-rich permafrost can increase the occurrence of slope failures, called active layer detachments, drastically altering the landscape.
“These are changes that we haven't seen at any other time in these Arctic landscapes,” said professor Atkinson. “In 2007, the warmest year since records began in 1949 in this area, we saw very large and widespread active layer detachments in the Arctic landscapes.” He noted that these landscapes usually change very slowly and have shown very little change since the last ice age (approximately 9,000 years ago). “The conditions and what's happening at Cape Bounty are mirrored in communities across the Arctic, putting many communities at risk, particularly to accessing fresh water.”
Scientists sample soil trace gases in a Wet Sedge Meadow (left) and view a retrogressive thaw slump at Cape Bounty.
Partnering with Indigenous communities
In 2017, professor Atkinson established partnerships with Indigenous communities in Pond Inlet and Baker Lake, Nunavut, to gather data and build local environmental monitoring capacity. This capacity empowers Indigenous communities to manage and protect their environments and answer their own research questions, contributing to a more sustainable future.
The data collected here shows that late-season snowbanks, a key water source for Arctic wetlands, are disappearing. This loss has a cascading reaction across the ecosystem. As the availability of freshwater changes, wetland ecosystems begin to change, too, altering vegetation and threatening traditional food and water sources for local communities. These effects illustrate how seemingly minor changes can disrupt entire ecosystems.
Professor Atkinson emphasizes that collaboration with Indigenous communities is crucial to understanding how climate change affects local ecosystems and livelihoods. “We partner with them in a learning way. They provide the traditional and local ecosystem knowledge – they live on this land,” he said. By integrating this traditional knowledge into the research, these partnerships enrich the scientific understanding of climate change.
The Arctic as a climate change indicator
The research team has used their long-standing data showing altered permafrost conditions, carbon balance changes and greening of the Arctic vegetation to create process models that help build an understanding of recent and current changes at this and other sites. These models can be used to inform policymakers on the current trajectories transforming Arctic ecosystems and be applied to regions beyond the Arctic, such as the Antarctic and other sensitive environments. They can also help forecast potential future impacts if trends continue, such as how Arctic changes could affect global weather patterns, sea levels and ecosystems.
“Understanding these changes is not just about data collection,” said professor Atkinson. “It’s about taking meaningful steps to address the root causes of climate change and protecting vulnerable ecosystems around the world.”
Learn more about the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory. (external link, opens in new window)
Understanding these changes is not just about data collection. It’s about taking meaningful steps to address the root causes of climate change and protecting vulnerable ecosystems around the world.
The research described in this article is supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Government of Canada International Polar Year (IPY), the Northern Scientific Training Program (NSTP) and Environment and Climate Change Canada. Professor Atkinson would also like to acknowledge the Nunavut Research Institute, ArcticNet and the People of Nunavut.
