News & Events

Understanding the GTA Housing Market Under the Current Planning System 

About the Seminar:

The buoyancy in new condominium apartment construction in the GTA masks a marked decline in the production of ground-related housing types. TD Economics in January 2015 noted that these housing trends have resulted in a growing price premium for single-detached and townhouse units which is contributing to poorer housing choices and reduced mobility of GTA households as well as deteriorating affordability. 

The focus of this seminar was on how the land use planning system is affecting the supply and price of new ground-related housing in the GTA within a framework of how housing markets operate. Both the demand and supply side of the ground-related housing marketplace were addressed with a special focus on the supply of serviced land. 

Moderator: 
Ben Dachis
Senior Policy Analyst, CD Howe Institute

Panelists:
David Amborski
Director, Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, Toronto Metropolitan University
Professor Amborski provided an overview to understanding the urban land market within the context of growth controls such as containment policies including the role of supply and demand in determining prices for various land uses  This provided background for the following presentations on supply and demand related to land and housing markets.

 (PDF file) Read Professor Amborski's presentation >> (opens in new window) 

Russell Mathew
Partner, Hemson Consulting Ltd. 
Mr. Mathew reviewed and discussed the forecasts of households by type of housing occupied for the GTA prepared in 2012/13 as part of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe planning exercise.

Read Mr. Mathew's presentation >> (opens in new window) 

Dr. Frank Clayton
Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, Toronto Metropolitan University
Dr. Clayton addressed questions such as what is the expected demand for ground-related housing over the next 5-10 years and how much of this demand needs to be accommodated on greenfield sites? How does a shortage of serviced land impact the prices for both new and resale homes in the GTA? The Provincial Policy Statement requires municipalities in the GTA to continually maintain at least 3 years of supply of unbuilt serviced and draft approved readily serviceable land to accommodate a range and mix of housing units by type. Are municipalities doing this? Is an “at least 3 years supply” sufficient to prevent a shortage of ground-related housing?

 (PDF file) Read Dr. Clayton's presentation >>
 (opens in new window) 

VIDEO OF THE EVENT:

Watch the video >> (opens in new window) 

MODERATOR:

BEN DACHIS
Senior Policy Analyst, CD Howe Institute 

PANELISTS:

DAVID AMBORSKI
Director, Centre for Urban Research and Land Development

RUSSELL MATHEW
Partner, Hemson Consulting Ltd. 

DR. FRANK CLAYTON
Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research and Land Development