IEA World Energy Outlook Key Findings

The World Energy Outlook is an annual report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that discusses energy consumption and international demand trends. As the economy evolves and geopolitical conflict intensifies, the global energy market as we know it reaches new indicators of unreliability every day. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was an increase in destabilization for energy while the demand increased. As the market continues towards uncertainty, there is an opportunity for change. The World Energy Outlook evaluates and models potential future outcomes of the energy sector using the Stated Policies Scenario, Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, and the Announced Pledges Scenario. It will be necessary to incorporate new investors, increased funds, supportive policies, and global collaboration to meet some of the climate targets and Sustainable Development Goals on an international scale [1]. As renewable energy becomes more prevalent and the development rate for green technology increases, the global demand for energy from fossil fuel sources has demonstrated a plateau or a peak [1].

Here are some of the key findings published in the 2022 World Energy Outlook:

• An overall look into the energy demand of the decade shows that renewable energies are the most sought-after; this demand gives an insight into the potential shifts in the energy industry. 
• The public opinion surrounding the clean energy field is set by a government's execution of initiatives and policies, reflecting that a governing body's green technology implementation and energy actions would help shape the public opinion of the sector. 
• The policies surrounding universal access to clean energy will require a change in approach to achieve the 2030 goal in response to high prices and inflation, as the number of people without access to electricity is likely to increase in 2022 for the first time in multiple decades. 
• In a rapidly changing and evolving energy market, uncertainty in energy sources and prices can cause people to go without electricity. Due to recent trends in the electric vehicle market, the industry is rapidly growing and is on track to maintain this growth, as it projects that the market in 2030 will be six times its size in 2021.

• Electricity is a large part of the world's energy consumption, with the final consumption totaling 20% of all global energy used. 
• Electricity is created using various energy sources and is a substantial user of renewable energy and fossil fuels. In 2021, carbon dioxide emissions that were associated with energy were over one-third accounted for by the electricity sector. 
• On a global scale, the electricity industry amounted to 59% of the worldwide coal usage, 34% of natural gas usage, 4% of oil usage, 52% of all renewable energy sources, and almost 100% of nuclear power usage. 
• The energy demand for electricity will increase by 2030, as it advances by 5 900 terawatt-hours by the Stated Policies Scenario and over 7 000 terawatt-hours by the Announced Pledges Scenario. 
• As electricity demand, prices, and electricity insecurity has increased, coal usage has briefly increased, but this should be a temporary trend due to recent global factors.

• Oil demand and the transportation sector are tightly linked. Sectors, like aviation, have experienced lots of shocks since the beginning of the pandemic, as others, like the chemical sector, have experienced steadiness, and the future of the liquid fuels industry is clouded in uncertainty. 
• Liquid fuels are very costly, which causes a lot of strain on the industry. As demands waiver with a limited supply, oil insecurity will grow, which is demonstrated in each model. Such trends provoke a reevaluation of energy sources and the future trajectories of energy supply.

• Although demands for natural gas have remained relatively consistent throughout the decade with mild increases, prices for gaseous fuels have rapidly increased due to global geopolitical conflict.
• Future shortages in the supply of gaseous fuels will add instability to an already uncertain future of natural gas. Even though natural gas could have coupled renewable energy sources in a transition to green energy, the fuel market is sensitive to current conflicts. There will potentially be a reevaluation of natural gas to hold this place in the industry transformation.

• Reliance on and demand for solid fuels like coal are currently nearing an all-time high. Russia has historically been established as a leader in global coal exportations, shipping to the European Union, but as the 2022 invasion of Ukraine has gone underway, Russian imports have halted. 
• As coal exports stop leaving Russia, prices surge due to a lack of supply. As a result, there has been uncertainty in the solid fuel market as the price surge has caused a lot of people to question the place of coal as their energy source. 
• Modern bioenergy, transitioning away from biomass, could fill a market demand that the lack of coal supplies leaves open.

One of the primary factors that will shape the future trajectory of the energy market is energy insecurity and instability. Insecurity in the energy sector is a factor of geopolitical conflict, implicating anything from imports and exports of fuels to prices. It is not possible to meet future demands with limited resources and the supply that is readily available. Both of these factors affect the future of the energy industry and create the need for energy independence and renewable energy sources on a global scale. The lack of energy security can force some to go without electricity or rely on fossil fuels, as seen with the increase in coal usage, which can provoke a transition to green and renewable energy.

[1] IEA (2022), World Energy Outlook 2022, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022, License: CC BY 4.0 (report); CC BY NC SA 4.0 (Annex A)