Research seminar by Dr. Shengkun Xie

Title: Spatial Modelling and Feature Extraction of Auto Insurance Loss Metrics to Uncover Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: This research addresses critical challenges in auto insurance territory risk analysis, focusing on the complexities of spatial loss data and the evolving landscape of territory risks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional clustering methods, including spatial clustering, are frequently employed in territory risk analysis but offer limited predictive power, restricting their usefulness in forecasting future losses—a crucial aspect of auto insurance pricing. To overcome this limitation, we propose a predictive modeling approach that analyzes the spatial patterns of loss data while examining the impact of the pandemic. Our Bayesian-based spatial model captures stochastic autocorrelations among territory rating units and neighboring areas, enabling effective pattern recognition through predictive modeling. By applying this model to the regulatory datasets, we gain insights into patterns of loss severity, claim frequency, loss cost, and
insurance loading. Our findings reveal significant shifts in insurance loss patterns pre- and post-pandemic, offering valuable guidance for insurance companies and regulators in understanding the evolving spatial dynamics and the pandemic’s influence on auto insurance losses.

Bio: Dr. Shengkun Xie has been an Assistant Professor in Global Management Studies since 2021. Before joining academia, he accumulated extensive experience as an applied statistician and actuarial consultant, working across industry and government sectors. He was a MITACS Elevate Strategic Postdoctoral Fellow from 2010 to 2012, conducting cutting-edge research in advanced health technologies.
Dr. Xie's current research focuses on risk modelling, auto insurance ratemaking, interpretable machine learning, and analysis of agent-based simulation models for complex systems. His work has been published in leading journals, including Expert Systems with Applications, Journal of Computational Science, Mathematics, Journal of Management Analytics, and Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance.