DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS of immigration’s impacts on small- and mid-sized cities in Canada
Yousef Khalifa Aleghfeli (Project Manager), Stein Monteiro, Daniela Ghio
The project explores different projection scenarios based on varying federal immigration targets, on differing provincial and sub-provincial retention rates, and on different transition rate assumptions from temporary resident status to permanent resident status.
- How does two-step immigration influence the regional distribution of the immigrant population in small- and medium-sized population centres?
- What is the impact of varying federal immigration targets and temporary-to-permanent transition rates on population growth and demographic make-up of different population centres in Canada?
Two-step immigration, defined as immigrants who transition from temporary residence status to permanent residence status, has increased significantly in recent years, becoming a key strategy for addressing labor shortages in smaller and rural communities. However, it is still unclear whether this migration management approach will help achieve Canada's broader population growth targets. There is a need to understand how different migration management scenarios (i.e., federal immigration targets, regional retention rates, transition rates from temporary to permanent residency) will affect migration's impact on sub-provincial population growth. By focusing on these dynamics, the research aims to provide insights for policymakers and practitioners on the effectiveness of two-step immigration and other migration management scenarios in supporting population and workforce sustainability in Canada’s population centres.
We develop a cohort-component projection model of non-permanent residents, permanent residents and temporary residents at CMA/CA-level. We include demographic transition factors such as birth, inter-CMA/CA migration, death, as well as changes in immigration status due temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency (i.e., two-step immigration).
Our model simulates policy relevant scenarios of the effect of modifying federal immigration targets and temporary-to-permanent transition rates. The impacts of these simulations on retention in small- and medium-sized centres, and the size of the labour force are analyzed. Data sources include the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) and Canadian census.
The research team is writing a manuscript on the findings regarding Canada’s immigrant working population. Future manuscripts may include the findings regarding Canada’s immigrant children population and immigration seniors' population.
December 2025
CERC Migration
Statistics Canada and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC)
demographic projections; migration management; data science