The Shortest History of Migration: A Conversation with Ian Goldin
Migration is one of the most powerful forces shaping human history. From early hunter-gatherers seeking new lands to today’s global movement of people, migration has driven innovation, transformed economies, and built entire civilizations. Yet, in an era of rising anti-immigration sentiment and political debate, the true story of migration is often overshadowed by misinformation and fear.
In The Shortest History of Migration, Oxford University Professor of Globalization and Development Ian Goldin unpacks this essential human story, tracing 300,000 years of movement and revealing how migration has always been central to our survival and success. In this conversation, Goldin shares surprising historical insights, discusses Canada’s evolving migration landscape, and explains why getting migration right is crucial for the future.
Q: Your book begins with the question: Why migration? So, why migration—and why now?
Ian: Migration is at the heart of human development. It’s why our species has been so successful. We’ve migrated to escape famines, diseases, and conflicts—things that could have wiped us out. But it’s not just about survival; migration is also about curiosity, meeting others, exchanging ideas, and, as I put it, “pollinating.” That’s allowed us to leapfrog as civilizations.
This moment is important because anti-immigration sentiment has risen dramatically, particularly in Europe and North America. The positive narrative about migration is being drowned out by negative stories and outright deceptions.
Migration has always been part of who we are—everyone is a migrant within a few generations if not sooner. We need to remind people of that, place migration in its historical context, and counter the misinformation.
Q: Your book spans 300,000 years of migration. What surprised you most?
Ian: A lot! One big surprise is how quickly our understanding of the past is changing, thanks to breakthroughs in DNA sequencing, genomics, and artificial intelligence. For example, DNA evidence has shown us that interbreeding with other species, like Neanderthals, influenced traits such as skin and hair color, high-altitude adaptation, and lactose tolerance.
Another fascinating continuity is what I call the “3% rule.” Throughout history, about 3% of people migrate, and this has held steady since we started collecting reliable data, around the First World War. While migration spikes during catastrophes, this percentage has been remarkably consistent. In the 19th century, far more people migrated relative to population size—nearly a third of Scandinavians, Italians, and over half the Irish. Today, migration levels are lower by comparison.
Toronto is celebrated as one of the most multicultural cities in the world. According to a 2024 report by Statistics Canada (external link) , 55.7% of Toronto's population identifies as racialized, showcasing its vibrant diversity.
Q: Canada, and Toronto specifically, is used in your book as an example of migration fueling diversity and economic dynamism. But with rising housing costs and economic uncertainty, attitudes are shifting. How does your book fit into this context?
Ian: The North American edition, coming out February 11, dives into the migration history of the US and Canada, including how the two countries competed for migrants. Historically, Canada has been remarkable in welcoming migrants. Toronto and Vancouver’s diversity has allowed them to grow faster. A few years ago, The Economist ranked them among the happiest cities in the world, it is not a coincidence that those are among the most diverse cities in the world.
But the recent negativity reflects real concerns. Toronto, for example, has seen rents skyrocket, with rent growing two times faster than income over the last decade. During that time, housing prices have quadrupled, and infrastructure hasn’t kept pace with population growth. However, blaming migrants is misplaced: migration has been the engine driving Toronto’s success. You don’t want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.
Q: What’s the solution to these challenges?
Ian: It’s about managing resources better. We need more housing construction, streamlined planning, investments in public transit, and for employers to help workers find affordable housing. All levels of government—local, provincial, and federal—must step up because cities like Toronto and Vancouver drive the country’s prosperity.
Canada must avoid undermining its historical openness to migration, but it also needs to grow its housing and services to match population growth. Migration itself isn’t the problem; the real issue is how we manage that growth.
Q: You propose a "migration bargain" to address negative attitudes toward immigration. What does that entail?
Ian: The idea is simple: we acknowledge that migrants are essential for our economies, especially with aging populations, and create legal pathways for migration. This includes proper visas, fair treatment, affordable housing, livable minimum wages, and equal protections under the law. At the same time, migrants have responsibilities too: pay taxes, follow the law, and leave when required. If they break these rules, the bargain is broken.
Migration policies are a national prerogative, set with a forward-looking vision of what the country needs. For example, as societies age and wealthier economies rely more on personal services like caregiving, we’ll need more migrants to fill these roles.
Refugees, however, are entirely different. They’re protected by international law and flee persecution or fear for their lives. Most refugees end up in neighboring countries, which is why global burden-sharing is critical. Canada has been remarkable, accepting far more refugees per capita than many other nations, but we mustn’t confuse refugee policy with migration for work, study, or family reunification.
Q: How do you see technology shaping migration in the coming decades?
Ian: Technology is already transforming migration, and migrants are at the forefront of these innovations. Many Silicon Valley founders are migrants or second-generation migrants, and breakthroughs like the COVID-19 vaccine—developed by Turkish migrants in Germany—show how vital migrants are for staying competitive in technology.
While AI and robotics will handle repetitive tasks, essential jobs like caregiving, hospitality, and artisanal work will still require human empathy and skill—things machines can’t replicate. These roles can’t be outsourced or done remotely, so they will increasingly rely on migrants. Even in countries with unemployment, locals often avoid these jobs, so demand for migrants will remain high.
If we restrict migration, we risk losing the innovation and energy that drive our economies. Migrants will continue to be vital, both for technological advancement and for meeting the demand for personal services that AI simply can’t fulfill.
Q: The Shortest History of Migration is written for a broad audience. Why is it important for scholars to engage with the public, and what advice would you give?
Ian: I think it’s essential to put facts out there and engage with the public. Scholars who believe in the importance of migration are not winning the battle, partly because we haven’t articulated our arguments in ways that resonate. We need to address valid public concerns with evidence-based solutions.
That’s why I wrote this book in a way that’s accessible. Anyone can read it and no technical knowledge is required. It spans subjects like economics, biology and many more, but remains straightforward. My hope is that people will read it, learn something, and join the debate on how to better manage migration.
Ian Goldin is the Oxford University Professor of Globalization and Development and founding director of the Oxford Martin School, the world’s leading center for interdisciplinary research into critical global challenges, where he has established forty-five research programs. Previously, he was vice president of the World Bank and its Head of Policy, responsible for its collaboration with the United Nations and key partners.He served as adviser to President Nelson Mandela, has been knighted by the French government, and is the author of three BBC series. Ian has been an advisor to numerous businesses, governments, and foundations and is a founding trustee of the International Center for Future Generations and Chair of the CORE Econ initiative to transform economics. He is the author of twenty-five books, including Age of the City, which was selected by the FinancialTimes as one of its best books of 2023.
