Shedding light on the invisible migrant population in Canadian society

As part of a Horizon Europe project, CERC Migration Research Fellow Shiva S. Mohan and Senior Research Fellow Daniela Ghio are taking on the daunting task of developing a methodology for determining the size of Canada's out-of-status population. A pathway to regularization will benefit both this migrant population and Canadian society as a whole, say the researchers, but without empirical evidence, policy is difficult to enact.

First, can you clarify what you mean by "people living out of status" and why it's a concern?

SM: An out-of-status person is someone who is not legally permitted to work or reside in the country; they don’t have a residency or work permit. Out-of-status people have always been a part of Canadian society, but their presence has largely been ignored. This population really does not fit into the ideology of Canada as a pro-immigration country and [into the idea] that migration is fully under control.  

A person ends up in Canada without status usually as a result of two possible scenarios: one, they enter the country without proper authorization, such as crossing into Canada at unofficial entry points along the land border, or two, they arrive first with temporary status (as a tourist or for work or study) and subsequently overstay or are unable to obtain continuing status. The majority of the non-status population is made of people in the category of status-related flows. Those are people who become out of status after a period of regular residence. Often, these individuals have lived in Canada for several years and are educated and employed.

The size of this population is unknown. We’ve seen estimates ranging anywhere from 80,000 to 500,000. The concern is that Canada has allowed the growth in multiple temporary residence pathways but with limited avenues to permanent residence in a system that is already overwhelmed. This, in theory, may be leading to many, many more people falling out of status here in Canada. 

As a non-status person, an individual faces all sorts of fears and vulnerabilities, from precarious work, risk of exploitation, and limited access to some social services. Without status, an individual has far less opportunity to progress in the job market according to their abilities – so it’s a loss to society as well. 

An important point to clarify is that the terminology for this population changes with context. In Canada, we commonly use the term “out-of-status” or "non-status" migrants, especially in activist and some academic circles. Academics also sometimes draw parallels with the way the term “irregular migrant” is used in the European context. In Canada, however, “irregular” has a narrower definition in law.  

With the government focused on bringing many more immigrants into Canada to address labour shortages, shouldn’t we be converting these individuals to regular status so they can participate in the formal economy? 

SM: The government is turning its attention to this issue. Since 2021, the mandate letters addressed to the minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada have asked that programs be piloted to find ways to create regular status for undocumented workers who are contributing to Canadian communities.

We have seen some limited programs implemented. In Quebec, for example, we saw, during the pandemic, a regularization program opened up for a small number of frontline workers in health care; in the Greater Toronto Area, there is also an ongoing program to regularize much-needed construction workers. But policies are difficult to implement politically when there are little empirical data that can inform government of the scale and scope of what needs to be addressed.    

The MIrreM Canada project proposes to address this gap in data by finding a way to measure this segment of the population. How can this be done when the very nature of out of status is that they are undocumented by official statistics and, therefore, unknown?

DG: Our intent is to piece together disparate data sets to create a comprehensive picture. We are developing a methodology to assess the out-of-status population size over time. Some of these data sets, for example, will include border crossings but also international student visa permits and, when available, data from surveys and school registries [as well as,] to some extent, general census data - and much more. We are mapping all indicators that could potentially contribute to the picture of the out-of-status population.

The data are not always straightforward either. Our methods may include the formulation of assumptions-based scenarios, inferences or indirect estimations. We have to consider spatial differences. So, for example, national-level data need to be broken down to the provincial level, as we know the occurrence of irregular migration is not distributed evenly across provinces, and even further to the local level because migration clusters in cities. 

To illustrate the exercise using the population segment of international students (a significant feeder category), we apply a residual method deducting all the instances of known status, leaving us with a quantity of potential unknown status. We use aggregated data that has no personal information to track those who arrived and those who then receive work permits, permanent residency status, or leave the country. Those not falling into any of these categories would be deemed to be still in Canada and out of status. You can see, it’s a very iterative process, which needs to consider dynamics over time.

The MIrreM project is international in scope and includes participation from the United Kingdom and 19 other countries, 12 of which are EU countries. What is the benefit of connecting your study of Canada to a broader international effort?

DG: Migration is a global phenomenon, and irregular migration is a problem that many countries around the world face, and it's one that Europe, in particular, has been tackling for some time. A common approach to categorization and measurement can help us understand the scale and scope of irregular migration across the globe and then how policies in one country might affect irregular flows in another.

Europe began a coordinated effort long ago in terms of harmonization of data categories across European member states, as per the European directive 862/2007. The European experience can help us in understanding how the challenges of categorization can be faced and whether any unintended consequences came about from policy change.    

Where are you now in this three-year project, and what are the next steps?

SM: We have just completed a report on the status of irregular migration in Canada, which mapped out the laws, policies and practices related to irregular migration. Our report highlights the uniqueness of migration in Canada and brings together important baseline information that is necessary to build a model for estimation and regularization initiatives.

DG: Our next step will be gaining access to the critical databases that we are identifying, which are the key pieces of the puzzle of irregular migration in Canada.  Once we have fully developed a model that has the potential to provide out-of-status migration estimates under different ranges of variability, we will undertake a significant knowledge exchange with Canadian policymakers.