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Spectacular Population Growth Continued in the City of Toronto and Peel Region in 2024

By: Frank Clayton, Senior Research Fellow and John Clinkard, Research Fellow

March 5, 2025

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Highlights

The Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) recorded explosive growth for the second consecutive year in 2024 (the 12 months ending July 1, 2024) – 382,000 and 367,000, respectively. The growth was focused in the city of Toronto (143,000), followed by Peel region (70,000), Waterloo and York regions (33,000 each) and Durham region (25,000).

The Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA), with a 2024 growth of 42,000 persons, was the commutershed with the second highest growth in Ontario, following the Toronto CMA (269,000).

A surge in permanent and non-permanent immigration accounted for the robust population growth in the GGH and GTA over the past two 12-month periods covered by the Statistics Canada estimates. This surge resulted in increased pressures on the already-deficient housing supply.

Recent changes in immigration policy will result in reduced population growth in subsequent years, providing some much-needed respite for the housing market.

Background

Statistics Canada (StatCan) released its annual population estimates for subprovincial areas as of July 1, 2024. The estimates for census divisions (CDs) and census metropolitan areas (CMAs) situated within the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) are presented here.

Census divisions include single-tier municipalities (cities of Toronto and Hamilton), regional municipalities (like Peel, Niagara and Halton), and counties including their separated municipalities (the Simcoe county CD incorporates the populations of Barrie and Orillia, for example). The blog refers to CDs as municipalities.

CMAs are commutersheds based on where most of the population lives and works. As such, they typically represent housing market areas, which individual municipalities usually do not.

The results of the municipalities (CDs) are presented first, followed by the CMAs. The latest population figures are subject to revision.

2024 Population Growth: Major Municipalities in the Greater Golden Horeshoe (GGH)

The GGH's population climbed by an extraordinary 382,000 persons in the 12 months ending July 1, 2024, continuing the fantastic pace of the preceding 12 months (a revised 367,000) (see Figure 1). Spurred on by a significant rise in immigration, population growth was more than double that of 2019, just before the onset of the pandemic.

Bar Chart of the Average Annual Residential Property Tax Paid in Large GTHA Municipalities, 2016 and 2021
By upper-tier and single-tier municipality (census division):

● Population growth was concentrated in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) – its 283,000 increase represents nearly three-quarters of all GGH growth in 2024;
 
● The city of Toronto (143,000) and Peel region (70,000) dominated overall growth in the GGH – accounting for three-quarters of GTA growth and 56% of GGH growth in 2024;
 
● Waterloo and York regions were tied for third in absolute growth (33,000);
 
● Another five municipalities continued to achieve much higher population growth in 2024 (and 2023) than compared to 2019, including Durham region (25,000), the city of Hamilton (16,000), and the Niagara region (15,000).

Population Growth by GGH’s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)

By geographical areas representing commutersheds or housing market areas (the CMAs):

● The Toronto CMA (269,000) dominated 2024 growth, accounting for 71% of total GGH population growth – an increase even more robust than that of the preceding 12 months (a revised 255,000);

● Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo was the second fastest growing CMA in the GGH, with an increase of 33,000 persons in 2024, falling marginally below the revised 36,000 growth 12 months earlier; and

● Oshawa (18,000), Hamilton (17,000), and St. Catharines-Niagara (15,000) recorded robust population growth for the second straight year.

Bar Chart of the average effective tax rate in Large GTHA Municipalities, 2016 and 2021. Source: TMU CUR

Population Growth in Ontario CMAs Outside of the GGH

Figure 2 also presents annual population growth estimates for five CMAs in Ontario located outside the GGH.

Three CMAs, Ottawa-Gatineau (42,000), London (19,000) and Windsor (15,000), all recorded strong growth across both 2023 and 2024. However, only Ottawa continued to exceed its 2023 population numbers (42,000 vs 37,000).

In contrast, the Kingston and Belleville CMAs did not experience significant growth spurts in either 2023 or 2024.

Conclusion

A surge in permanent and non-permanent immigration accounted for the robust population growth in the GGH and GTA over the past two 12-month periods covered by the Statistics Canada estimates. This surge resulted in increased pressures on the already-deficient housing supply.

Since mid-2024, the federal government has reduced its immigration targets, which should result in a diminished influx of newcomers. However, there is growing uncertainty about how the crack down on illegal immigrants in the United States may impact the flow of migrants from there into Canada. Fewer immigrants will be reflected in a lesser demand for housing.

References

Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0152-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census division, 2021 Boundaries. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015201 (external link) 

Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0148-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2021 Boundaries. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801 (external link)